Some of my best friends are pollsters.
And since we’re headlong into the silly season why not give the math geeks among us some pixelated love instead of citing the insufferable, self-appointed, cocktail weenie-stuffed (and frequently wrong) political pundits who are too busy congratulating themselves for their penetrating insight on Barack Obama’s decision to refuse public financing for his presidential campaign.
Hey fellas, John McCain flip-flopped on that months ago and all we got was chirping crickets on the OpEd pages. Just sayin’.
Presidential poll
Gallup Poll Daily Tracking reports that Sen. Barack Obama holds a slim two-point lead over Sen. John McCain among registered voters. That trend has borne out over the last several weeks. No news here. Move long, folks.
But wait!
A Newsweek poll claimed late on Friday in an online exclusive that Obama enjoys a 15-point lead over his rival calling it a post-primary "bounce." Or is it simply a statistical outlier caused by poor methodology or media "noise" during the period in which respondents were contacted and blamed good/bad news on the candidates? Newsweek sheepishly notes that "random statistical error" could explain the wide difference in their numbers versus every other polling firm on the planet.
Moral of the story: It’s too darn early to put much stock in polls.
U.S. Senate poll
Rasmussen Reports finds that Rep. Mark Udall is widening his lead over ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer in Colorado’s open seat race for U.S. Senate. Over the last three polls, Udall has consistently improved the gap by three points in each survey interval. While the candidates have virtually locked up partisan voters, unaffiliateds prefer Udall 51 to 31 percent which could spell big trouble for Schaffer in a state where a third of the electorate is not registered with a political party.
Women voters give Udall a 16-point advantage over his GOP rival. Maybe all those creepy "thanks Bob" ads featuring kids aren’t working so well with moms.
Presidential non-approval poll
When you lose FOX News viewers, you lose the nation or something like that. A new survey finds President Bush at an abysmal 29 percent approval rating, with nearly three-quarters of respondents agreeing that the end of the Bush Administration cannot come fast enough. Seven percent of those polled were "unsure" of the president’s performance.
Where are we headed poll
Apparently in the wrong direction. An AP-Ipsos poll reports an astounding 80 percent of respondents say the nation is on the wrong track. The dwindling glass-is-half-full crowd — a mere 17 percent of adults — is at the lowest level ever tracked by the poll in its five years of existence and compares to other measures that put Americans in the worst doldrums in 30 years.
Food and gas price hikes, the widening home mortgage crisis and never-ending war were cited as reasons. Stock in the VH1 series "I Love the 70s" soared on news of the potential nostalgic comeback of gas rationing and "Happy Days" reruns.
Veepstakes
It’s not scientific but, what the hell, it’s fun to play armchair prognosticator. Dem Convention Watch is running a VP poll on its site.
Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius is running just 4-points ahead of New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who’s in a near-dead heat with Virginia Sen. Jim Webb in the latest round.
First lady poll
I don’t know about you but fist-bumps always win out over stolen cookies recipes in my household.
A Washington Post/ABCNews poll shows Michelle Obama with a 9-point lead over Cindy McCain in the battle for the White House East Wing.
Like her husband, Mrs. McCain seems to have street cred problems with conservatives. Her favorability rating with the values voters set hovers at 46 percent — and 20 percentage points below Mrs. Obama’s 66 percent likeability factor among liberals.
Reproductive rights poll
Coinciding with Planned Parenthood’s man on the street YouTube video, NARAL Pro-Choice America released a poll this week touting Obama’s slight lead over McCain before women voters in 12 battleground states (including Colorado) were informed about the senators’ reproductive rights voting records. Obama gets a 13-point bounce afterwards.
With Colorado’s "egg as a person" measure on the November ballot and partisans on each side of the abortion issue gearing up for the DNC convention in Denver, you can bet that this issue will be beaten like a drum on the Pearl Street Mall. Dirty hippie not included.
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