According to the Tufts University Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE), only 5 percent of eligible voters under the age of 30 cast ballots in seven of Tuesday’s contests.

Working from exit polls, CIRCLE found that young voters in Georgia, Massachusetts, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia distributed their support fairly evenly among the top three candidates. Ron Paul and Mitt Romney each garnered 88,000 votes. Rick Santorum pulled down 86,000 votes and Newt Gingrich trailed with 43,000 votes.

Although comparison with statistics from past years is of limited value because turnout is tied to a host of factors, like what time of year the contest are being held and whether or not there’s a parallel primary being held among Democrats, Tufts researchers say turnout this year is low.

CIRCLE Director Peter Levine said the numbers demonstrate that, for young people, it’s a close race but not a very thrilling one.

“Republicans have some work to do to build youth support,” he wrote in a release.

Abby Kiesa, CIRCLE youth coordinator and researcher, told the Colorado Independent that the underwhelming youth-voter stats should be viewed as a warning sign, not only for the 2012 presidential election, but also for future elections.

“Are the candidates making an effort to get young people to participate? Are they speaking to youth? I see very little of it. Yet research shows that, if you reach out to young people, they vote. It’s a big mistake to write off young people. Behavioral habits in politics develop early. That’s when people form their civic political identities.”

A yawning gap

In the last three general elections, Democratic presidential candidates have won the majority of the youth vote, and in all three elections voters under 30 have been the party’s most supportive age group. That advantage reached new heights in the 2008 Obama-McCain election. According to the Pew Foundation, Obama won 66 percent of the youth demographic, a disparity in support separating young people from any other voting demographic unrivaled in the 40 years Pew has been conducting exit polls.

Pew analysts call what’s happening a generational shift without precedent. In a post-2008 election piece, the organization reported that a 19-point gap among youth voters yawns between Democrats and Republicans. Specifically, 45 percent of people under 30 said they were Democrats and 26 percent said they were Republicans. What’s more, that gap has opened fast. In 2000, when George W. Bush defeated Al Gore, party affiliation was evenly split.

Kiesa acknowledges that there have been pockets of enthusiasm on the Republican side this year tied to Ron Paul, the Texas congressman whose libertarian views have traditionally appealed to young people. The larger problem remains, however, she said, pointing out that, despite fairly intense college campus support, Paul has yet to even significantly push ahead of Romney in votes cast among young participants overall.

It’s also an open question whether Paul voters will back any other Republican in the increasingly likely event that he fails to win the party’s general-election nomination.

“Some Paul supporters will move over, but I think most probably won’t,” said Steve Fenberg, executive director of youth politics group New Era Colorado. “Young people are frustrated with politics and Paul is saying something different. He’s being honest and shaking things up. That appeals. But that’s a generalized feeling that doesn’t always translate when you’re talking about governing particulars or a [party] platform. I think a lot of [Paul supporters] will sit it out and others will vote for Obama– and that’s because the Obama campaign will court them.”

Take away the blip in enthusiasm being generated by Paul, and the GOP youth-voter problem this year seems even more grave. Fenberg sees the issue as a matter of priorities reflected in campaign infrastructure.

“People think 2008 was an amazing year [for youth-voter turnout] because of Obama– that young people suddenly woke up and voted just because of Obama. The trick, though, was that the Obama campaign invested millions of dollars on the youth vote. There was enormous focus on that. The GOP won’t court young people. I wish they would, but I don’t see it. I don’t see them spending the money it will take to turn out the vote.”

The mobilized mobilizing

Fenberg is referencing mechanics tied to election-campaign ground games that the researchers at Pew and scholars like University of Denver political scientist Seth Masket have explored in depth since 2008. Young people didn’t just vote for Obama, they were also unusually active in his campaign. Nearly 30 percent said they attended at least one campaign event that year, which was very likely the result of hardcore online and offline efforts carried out to mobilize supporters. Those mobilized supporters mobilized more supporters.

All told, the McCain campaign opened fewer than 400 field offices. The Obama campaign opened more than 700, many of them in battleground states. Obama opened field offices in 43 percent of counties in eleven swing states. Masket, in his 2009 study of the Obama ground game, found that Colorado counties with an Obama office saw at least a three-point increase in Democratic vote totals.

In Colorado and the other battleground states, Pew found that young people were contacted in much greater numbers by the Obama campaign than were contacted by the McCain campaign. Battleground youth voters were also more likely to be contacted than were older battleground voters, which Pew reported was a “significant reversal from past patterns.”

Nationally, the Obama campaign contacted 25 percent of young voters whereas the McCain campaign contacted 13 percent, that disparity another departure from the past: In 2004, the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns reached out to young people in nearly the same percentages. In a few key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, Florida and Indiana, the percentage of young voters contacted by the Obama campaign reached up to 50 percent and 60 percent, doubling and tripling McCain campaign efforts and notching some of Obama’s biggest and/or most significant point spreads on Election Night.

Kiesa agrees with Fenberg that GOP strategists don’t seem to have properly studied the 2008 voting statistics.

“There’s enormous opportunity for Republicans,” she said. “Youth turnout was high, but not across the board: white youth voters, not so much, and lots of red-state youth didn’t vote. Republicans can play a role in closing the enthusiasm gap.”

MTV Mitt

If Republicans are going to do that, Kiesa said that perhaps a good way to start would be to retool their youth message. Right now, the main topic the candidates talk about with young people is the national debt.

“I did see Romney take a question from MTV last week,” she said. “It was the debt [again], how it hangs over young people’s future.”

Fenberg notes that young people are disproportionately plagued by thin job opportunities in the recovery and so they care deeply about the economy. He said that talking about expanding job opportunities for young people is different than talking about the national debt.

“The debt argument, you get the feeling when young people mention it, they’re just saying that because it has entered the echo chamber. I don’t think it’s an issue that keeps young people up at night. The national debt is wonky.

“So far, I just don’t hear a message that will resonate,” he said. “On the social issues– tolerance, reproductive rights– [the candidates] are not in line with what young people think. The low turnout [on Super Tuesday] doesn’t surprise me at all. I don’t think this primary has been a conversation that appeals to young people.”

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Organizer hope that several activities, including the march and a blowout party on Election Day, will help turn out the student vote.

View the audio-video gallery of the march and rally below.

(Photo/turtlemoon, Flickr)

An ominous-sounding letter that El Paso County Clerk and Recorder Bob Balink sent to a journalism student at Colorado College has reignited a 3-week old controversy over his past erroneous assertion that out-of-state college students are not eligible to vote in Colorado.

In the latest controversy, Balink forwarded a letter to the CC student, written by an attorney whose firm has close ties to the Colorado Republican Party, warning of “cascading effects” that could happen if students vote in Colorado — including criminal penalties for not registering their cars in this state. Strong is an understatement for how Democratic elected officials and officers have responded, denouncing Balink for attempting to discourage students from voting.

“Just how much incompetence from Bob Balink are we going to put up with?” said an exasperated state Sen. John Morse, a Democrat from Colorado Springs, which is in El Paso County. “I’m sick and tired of this.”

Morse, along with other state Democratic Party officials, have scheduled a news conference for 11 a.m. Thursday in front of the clerk and recorder’s office in downtown Colorado Springs to denounce a letter that has been circulated by Balink about student voters as irresponsible and its message incorrect.

They are also planning to demand that Balink, who is active in El Paso County GOP politics and was a delegate to the Republican National Convention last month, disclose his “relationship” with the Denver law firm that prepared the letter.

Late Wednesday Matt Farrauto, the spokesman for the Colorado Democratic Party, called the letter “ominous, scary and intimidating” to students who have been planning to vote in Colorado. (The full text of the letter appears below, in blockquote.)

“When the clerk should be encouraging voter participation and registration, this raises red flags and serious concerns,” Farrauto said. “Given [Balink’s] past behavior and his stubbornness in regard to ensuring a smooth and open access to the electoral process, this is a problem.”

Balink could not be reached for comment late Wednesday afternoon.

Three weeks ago Balink issued a correction to a claim sent to Colorado College officials earlier this year that out-of-state students at the liberal arts college may not be eligible to vote. Balink subsequently said it was a big mix-up, and that his office had misinterpreted state law.

However, Democratic officials, including Morse and state Party Chairwoman Pat Waak, scoffed at the explanation, noting that Balink’s letter had not been sent to the Air Force Academy, also in Colorado Springs and presumably with a far more conservative student population than that of Colorado College.

Colorado law allows anyone who is over 18 years old, has resided in the state for more than 30 days and is a legal citizen to register and vote.

Nearly two weeks after Balink’s mea culpa, and in response to student Tabitha Hrynick’s inquiry about that very issue, Balink forwarded Hrynick a letter that had been prepared by Erik Groves, an attorney at the Denver firm of Zakhem-Atherton LLC. The firm specializes in election law, and routinely represents Republican clients. One of the firm’s attorneys, Ryan Call, took a leave of absence in July and signed on to be the political director and in-house legal counsel for the state Republican Party.

In his letter — sent to the student by Balink — Groves provided an analysis of what happens when students vote in Colorado. Among his claims: Students who register in Colorado must “abandon” any prior residency in other states and makes their departure from their parents’ homes “permanent.” In addition, Groves claims that students who register and vote in Colorado could “jeopardize” their parents financially — and that they could face criminal charges if they don’t also obtain Colorado driver’s licenses and register their vehicles in Colorado.

“This is bullshit, and it’s not supported by law,” said Morse. Further, such advocacy stretches far beyond the purview of the clerk and recorder, Morse has said. Finally, late Wednesday afternoon the state senator wondered why Balink, in cash-strapped El Paso County, apparently hired a Denver law firm to provide legal analysis instead of consulting with the county’s own tax-paid attorney.

In recent weeks Balink, who oversees elections in Colorado’s most populated county, has also been the target of additional criticism, including his decision to slice in half — from six to three — the number of early voting centers in the 2,000-square-mile county.

Here is the letter, written by attorney Erik Groves of Denver-based Zakhem-Atherton LLC, that El Paso County Clerk and Recorder Bob Balink sent to a Colorado College journalism student — the latest message to come under fire by state Democratic officials:

The September 24th article [in the Colorado Springs Gazette], “Balink under fire for error on CC voter registration”, gives significant attention to whether Colorado College students are able to register to vote, yet little attention is given to the consequences of doing so.

Advocates, such as Senator John Morse, Martha Tierney, and Pat Waak, are correct in stating that there are no prohibitions on Colorado College students registering to vote. Nevertheless, out-of-state students should do so with their eyes wide open. Registering to vote in Colorado can have cascading effects that could affect the students and their parents financially.

When an individual registers to vote in Colorado, they make an affirmation that they are a resident of Colorado. The statement of residency exceeds merely being present in the state. The affirmation also includes abandoning prior residency in other states. Additionally, it makes departure from the student’s home permanent rather than temporary.

This distinction of a student living here temporarily or establishing a domicile has ramifications that go far beyond where they cast their ballot. Colorado law allows students who are here temporarily to maintain vehicle registration and drivers licenses in their home state. Once an out-of-state student registers to vote and declares Colorado as their state of residency, all the additional obligations of residency attach. These obligations include both vehicle registration and obtaining a Colorado drivers license. Failure to do either of these acts could result in criminal penalties. Are the students who are the targets of voter registration drives informed of these consequences? Are they aware of the big picture impact of signing the voter registration form?

Beyond the student’s new obligations related to Colorado state residency, there are other potential consequences to establishing residency as a student. Out-of-state students who are claimed as dependents by their parents can jeopardize their parents’ ability to claim the student as a dependent on their taxes. Establishing a new domicile outside of the parents’ home state could end up costing the parents the $3,500 tax deduction. The establishment of a new domicile could impact the student’s dependency status that is required for eligibility under the parents’ health insurance plan or auto insurance policy. Students who intend to return to a state school in their home state for graduate school could have a rough awakening when they find out that they have to pay out-of-state tuition because they have lost their previous in-state status. These are complex issues that must be addressed.

It is worth noting that an out-of-state student can still participate in the election by requesting an absentee ballot from their home state, if that is where they are registered. The voter registration drives that are targeting Colorado College students have a moral obligation to inform them of the impacts of their voter registration and to suggest that they consult with their parents prior to registering.

While groups that work to increase involvement in the electoral process should be applauded, blindly pushing students to register in Colorado, even when doing so could be to their detriment, is wrong. Registering out-of-state students in Colorado without fully disclosing the potential impacts of such registration borders on exploitation.

For further information contact:
Zakhem-Atherton LLC
303-228-1200
Mr. Erik Groves
Denver, CO

Young adults often click away from 2008 election news online because they feel news sites bombard them with too much information and too many choices, according to a new study released by Northwestern University’s Media Management Center. …

The report found that while millennials are interested in the elections and want information about the candidates and issues, they don’t want to spend much time following day-to-day developments. However, they do appreciate news sites that help them — and other new voters — understand the basics about the candidates, issues and election process.

The Center had suggestions for designing with millenials in mind:

• Place huge emphasis on clear, helpful, immediately understandable organization and design that signals what to focus on and conveys the relative importance of offerings on a page. Short, meaningful, compelling headlines are essential.

• Offer content in manageable layers and chunks, letting the reader decide how deep to go. When stories go more than a page, young adults tend to tune out. However, if stories maintain their interest enough to click on a link, the millennials want some substance.

• Have a lot but display a little. It’s better for this audience to be selective in what is presented (with links to more information) than to overwhelm with “too much.”

• Concentrate most on information resources that help young people (and other new voters) understand the basics about the candidates, the issues and the election process.

Read full report here [pdf].

As the PEW data indicates, this is a shift that is occurring among almost all segments of the Millennial generation, but the shift along gender lines seems to be most significant. Among young voters (18 – 29 year olds), in the last 16 years, young women have moved from a +8 advantage for the Democrats (50 – 42%) to an incredible +35 point advantage (63 – 28%). Among young men, that partisan identification has moved from a 10 point deficit (42 – 52% Republican) to a 14 point advantage (52 – 38%).

These are seismic shifts in the electorate and they are hugely significant.

In the 1980s and early 1990s, it was Generation X and the late Baby Boomers who occupied the 18 – 29 year olds slot in the electorate. They were very conservative as a group and helped elect Reagan and Bush Sr., and usher in the Gingrich Revolution. That laid the groundwork for the Republican majorities we have suffered through these last two decades.

Read the rest of his analysis on the PEW report here.

In what appears to be a wagon-circling move by longtime party insiders, the Clinton and Obama campaigns are exercising their “right of refusal” powers — essentially rewarding only the most fire-breathing, unswayable supporters among the thousands of people applying to become national delegates to represent their states at the Democratic National Convention in Denver.

This

Book signings are slated tonight at 7:30 p.m. at the LoDo Tattered Cover and Wednesday at 7:30 p.m. at the Boulder Book Store.Connery’s book is getting rave reviews:

Phillip Anderson, The Albany Project

Mike, who has been blogging at Future Majority and other sites for years, has been working in youth organizing for over half a decade and has spent most of that time listening to people tell him that he was wasting his time, that young people aren’t worth the effort, they don’t show up. All of a sudden, about two months ago, Mike starts to look like a genius as the Obama youth wave came on the traditional media’s radar screens. So far in this primary season, young voters are turning out at roughly double what they did in 2004 and in some states they are showing up at quadruple the rate of the last cycle. It’s entirely possible that youth turnout in this year’s general election could exceed the all time record participation of the 1972 election. The Obama phenomenon gets much credit for this development and they do certainly deserve a share of the credit, but this wave is bigger than Obama and people like Mike have been working their tails off for years to bring this about.

Matthew Singer, Better Editor

Mike Connery is well-placed to write the history of the emerging progressive youth movement. He has, after all, been near the heart of it almost since its birth in the years preceding the ’04 election.

Youth to Power is an engaging history of the lessons, mis-steps, and huge successes of the dozens of organizations and thousands of grassroots leaders across the country who comprise the new progressive movement.

This book is a recommended read for anyone working in youth politics — and anyone who wants to figure out how a progressive majority is possible in America.

Misswrite76, Good Reads

This is a great book outlining the etiology of the current youth movement and its potential to concretely impact Progressive politics for decades to come. Connery outlines the strategies that have worked, those that haven’t and sorts through the history of the major players for the different subcultures. I’m in the middle of it, but it’s great. Well researched and documented.

Thom Hartman, KPOJ-AM podcast

And don’t miss Connery’s live Q&A at Colorado Confidential last week outlining the challenges and opportunities of youth voters.

Join Center for Independent Media fellow Mike Connery, author of “Youth to Power: How Today’s Young Voters are Building Tomorrow’s Progressive Majority,” for a live 30 minute Q&A on Friday, April 11 at 10 a.m. MDT. Connery will take your questions on how technology, social media and grassroots organizing are reviving the youth political movement. Then, see Mike at the LoDo Tattered Cover and Boulder Book Store next week for book tour dates.

In the meantime, read Mike’s blog, Future Majority, and his contributions on youth vote issues at Huffington Post, MyDD.com and TechPresident.