Doug Hoffman

Some of Shaftan’s arguments, summarized by Weigel:

- Dede Scozzafava’s endorsement of Owens — which the Democrats sought while Hoffman notably did nothing — “hurt with independent voters.”

- The Hoffman campaign was too focused on Scozzafava and “should have shifted the attack to Owens once she fell into third.”

- The presence of outside groups for Hoffman “may have backfired to a slight extent” because it “emphasized Hoffman’s poor grasp of local issues.” Shaftan singled out freewheeling FreedomWorks chairman Dick Armey for some blame here, as Armey dismissed the local issues that tripped up Hoffman as “parochial issues.”

- Hoffman’s attacks on earmarks also backfired, because it was “turned around as an attack on Fort Drum,” a huge employer in the district.

- Hoffman should have nailed Owens as what he turned out to be — a key vote for health care reform.

Shaftan’s poll is here:

NY-23 memo

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Musgrave, a former 4th District Republican U.S. Congresswoman who lost to Democrat Betsy Markey last year and now works for the pro-life activist organization Susan B. Anthony List, told the New York Times that party leaders in Washington should take the message of the campaign and the election seriously, that the Party base should not be taken for granted. “Don’t just assume we’re yours,” she said.

“This is probably the most amazing coalition-building I’ve seen in a long time — probably decades,” said Marilyn Musgrave, a former Republican congresswoman from Colorado who now works with the Susan B. Anthony List and came to New York to campaign for Mr. Hoffman.

On Tuesday morning, Ms. Musgrave stood in frigid weather for several hours outside a state office building in downtown Watertown with a group of home-schooled students passing out blue fliers that read, “Doug Hoffman shares our values!”

The battle in New York likely reverberates through Republican Party leadership across the country, including here in Colorado.

Marilyn Musgrave

Yesterday, arch-conservative state Sen. Dave Schultheis, who made a show of backing the Conservative Party’s Hoffman over the Republican candidate, announced he would not be running for a second term. His would-be primary opponent Tom McDowell, however, took little comfort in the news. McDowell told the Colorado Independent that conservatives of Schultheis’s ilk were stubbornly wrecking the party. The single-mindedness on abortion in Schultheis’s case, for example, he said, amounted to Republican “fratricide.”

Schultheis is “too in love with single issue inspired fratricide. I expect that his wing of the party will try to put up someone else, but that candidate will have to carry Schultheis’ fratricidal baggage.’”

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Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman at his campaign headquarters Tuesday (David Weigel)

It was a sour note in a night of mostly good news for Republicans. The party’s slate in Virginia, a state where it had lost ground for eight years, was so dominant that it pulled seven Republican candidates into the state House of Delegates. In New Jersey, where several election cycles had seen Republican leads collapse in the final days, former U.S. attorney Chris Christie handily defeated incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine. Conservatives rallied to overturn a same-sex marriage law in Maine, and Republican candidates won surprise, under-the-radar victories in local races in New York and Connecticut.

The problem for conservatives now is their definition of success, in the intoxicating run-up to the election, wasn’t based on a multi-state win. Instead, it was all about Hoffman.

“Hoffman is likely to win,” said Bill Kristol, the editor of the Weekly Standard, during a Monday appearance on Fox News. “This is a classic swing congressional district. If a conservative Republican can win in this district with all the disadvantages of the chaos on the Republican side and the official Republican candidate pulling out and endorsing the Democrat, what does that say to the moderate Democrats in the House?” As late as 10:13 on Tuesday night, the National Review writer Victor Davis Hanson referred to the Democrats’ “three candidates” who looked like they would go down to defeat in a referendum on Barack Obama. Two were defeated–one, Bill Owens, was not.

In the last, frantic 72 hours of the race, conservatives focused on NY-23 as an all-but-sure win for the unlikeliest of candidates, a conservative triumph that would put an exclamation point on a great Republican night. After a Monday night campaign appearance for Hoffman, Jeri Thompson told TWI that a victory for the Conservative “would mean the Blue Dog Democrats stiffen their spines and say ‘no way, there’s no way we’re going to vote for health care.’” In his campaign appearances on Monday and Tuesday, the preternaturally low-key Hoffman began predicting victory. Asked if Scozzafava’s endorsement of Owens would hurt him, he said he’d “win without her.” Asked about the implications of a possible win, Hoffman eschewed the typical “too soon to say” response and talked about what “this victory” would mean for conservative, low-tax and anti-spending values.

If Hoffman and staff were too optimistic, they had their reasons. In the final stretch of the campaign, they welcomed in a surge of anti-abortion and Tea Party activists who hit the streets to canvass and get out votes. On Election Day, the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List coordinated more than a hundred activists to hand out sample ballots at polling stations. And at polling places visited by TWI, turnout was just what Hoffman’s campaign hoped for–high in the right areas–and voters who chose either candidate picked up on aspects of his message.

Continue reading at the Washington Independent, the Colorado Independent’s sister site in D.C.

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In such an environment– one that includes the New York Congressional race where Colorado social conservative Marilyn Musgrave campaigned for a Conservative Party candidate over the local GOP candidate– Wadhams may find it difficult to maintain message. So far, GOP candidates for the top Colorado spots– Michael Bennet’s U.S. Senate seat and Bill Ritter’s seat in the Governor’s mansion– have been avoiding social issues and emphasizing fiscal conservativism. Can that strategy last?

Dick Wadhams

Registered Republicans still outnumber Democrats in Colorado but in the last five years, Democrats have won both of the state’s U.S. Senate seats, three U.S. House seats, the governorship and majorities in both houses of the state Assembly. But Colorado is not suddenly Massachusetts.

As NPR reported Monday, the only way anyone wins in Colorado is by appealing to the nearly one-third of the voting population that remains unaffiliated, and this is no secret to Wadhams.

Wadhams senses opportunity. He’s already crafted a message focused on fiscal responsibility that is designed to appeal to unaffiliated voters.

“They seem to be very concerned about the massive spending proposals of the Obama administration,” says Wadhams. “They’re very concerned about the deficits.”

Yet Wadhams has reportedly thrown his weight behind the high-profile candidacies of Sen. Josh Penry and Jane Norton. Penry is running for governor and Norton for U.S. Senate. But the records of Penry and Norton both suggest they are more likely to advance a social-conservative agenda than their more moderate rivals Scott McInnis and Ken Buck.

In the present environment, where Penry’s state Senate colleagues are moved to draft a letter in support of “real Republican” Doug Hoffman, based in large part on Hoffman’s stance on social issues, it may not be long before Penry and Norton are forced out of the fiscal conservative closet where Wadhams has in effect been keeping them.

How long will grassroots Republicans and far-right activists like Marilyn Musgrave and Michelle Malkin allow Jane Norton to continue with the kind of vague pronouncements she made last night in Greeley:

Norton said if she’s nominated and elected to the Senate, she would work to bring back values of Republicans by bringing people back into action.

“We don’t need over-government, over-taxes, over-spending and over-regulations. We do not want government control of our health care,” she said.

Norton promised to restore values of the individual, the rights of individuals and the responsibilities of people.

“We will not compromise our values and principals,” she said.

More significantly, how long will the state’s key unaffiliated voters tolerate this kind of dog whistle evasion on matters that may deeply affect their personal lives– matters like contraception, abortion, marriage, sex ed curriculum and the viability of K-12 public education?

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The Susan B Anthony campaign for Hoffman is not subtle. We have photos, care of the Washington Independent’s David Weigel, who is on the ground reporting from this week’s frontline in the battle for heart of the Republican Party.

The front of a Susan B Anthony List handout:

The back of the same handout:

Below, the sample ballot paid for by the SBA List and the National Organization for Marriage. Emily Buchanan of SBA List told Weigel that 90,000 of these samples would be distributed today.

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After the jump find a candid snapshot of former 4th District U.S. Rep. Marilyn Musgrave on the campaign trail for Hoffman. It was taken by the Washington Independent’s Dave Weigel. Also find the letter social-conservative Colorado state senators sent endorsing Hoffman as the “real Republican” in the New York race.

Musgrave’s excellent adventure to New York’s 23rd District is being sponsored by the pro-life Susan B. Anthony List, for which she works as director of a program that targets vulnerable pro-abortion rights Members of Congress.

Here’s a National Post round up of some of the recent media exchanges on the election.

And here is the letter Colorado GOP legislators sent out in support of Hoffman. They sent it to Michelle Malkin, who published it at her blog. The Colorado conservative purists are of course Sens. Scott Renfroe, Kevin Lundberg, Greg Brophy, Dave Schultheis and Rep. Kent Lambert, and they are…

pleased to endorse Republican Doug Hoffman, candidate for the 23rd Congressional District of New York. A liberal Republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava, is supported by the New York GOP in a contest that has not had the benefit of a primary election. Assemblywoman Scozzafava’s views do not reflect the conservative principles set forth in the Republican Platform.

The Republican establishment should stop supporting candidates that merely call themselves Republicans to get elected, and whose actions then undermine principled Republican legislation. We should represent our loyal Party members better by heeding their warnings against compromising Republican principles. Unlike Scozzafava’s views, the Republican Party Platform is pro-life, pro-capitalist, and pro-traditional marriage, and is opposed to radical leftist groups like ACORN.

Liberal Democrat issues are not in the best interest of the citizens of the United States, and therefore should be rejected by the Republican Party if we want this nation to survive and thrive as a beacon of light to the world. This is not just a local New York issue. Republicans throughout America should insist that their Party back candidates worthy of their support, not liberals supported by Democratic leaders and Barack Obama.

We are thrilled to have found that Doug Hoffman will stand firm for freedom, liberty, limited government and the other values that Republicans hold dear.

Please consider helping Doug by visiting his official website and joining us in supporting his campaign.

If the present crop of GOP candidates running to represent Coloradans believe they can continue to avoid strongly voicing their stances on the social issues these men believe define the Republican party, they have gotten used to the happy political world in Colorado that emerged in the days between Bush and Hoffman, where Obama and anti-tax tea parties have ruled the day. It’s time Jane Norton and Josh Penry, for example, fully articulate their social policy agenda for Colorado.

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“Take Bill’s opponent,” said Biden, referring to Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. “I’m sure he’s a nice guy, but imagine him being able, if he won this election, to take issue with any position that Rush Limbaugh has.” Biden said that the idea of letting “Rush Limbaugh hand-pick” the successor to John McHugh, the Republican congressman who became the Obama administration’s secretary of the army, was unbelievable.

Biden’s speech veered between reminiscing about his college days in Syracuse, N.Y., and bemused attacks on conservative leaders like former House Majority Leader Dick Armey and Sarah Palin, who’d backed Hoffman.

“The fact of the matter is, Sarah Palin thinks the answer to energy is ‘drill, baby, drill,’” said Biden. “It’s a lot more complicated, Sarah!”

After some loud laughter at Palin’s name, Biden dialed down that rhetoric and went after The Wall Street Journal, asking whether Hoffman would go along with the laissez-faire policies of its editorial page. “I wonder what Bill’s opponent would have done when we extended unemployment insurance,” he said. “I ask you, when you pick up the paper, to ask yourself — what would Bill’s opponent do about that?”

Biden sounded almost plaintive when he told the crowd that Hoffman’s backers were “the people who created this mess” with deregulation and free-market economics. He explicitly asked moderate Republicans to follow Scozzafava’s lead and back Owens — and he singled out Scozzafava’s husband, Ron McDougall, who was present at the rally.

“I know what all these guys are against,” said Biden, taking another swing at Hoffman and his backers. “I don’t know what they’re for.”

Musgrave is making two stops for Hoffman Saturday at Pastor and Home School Parent receptions. Musgrave is being sponsored by the pro-life Susan B. Anthony List, for which she works as director of a program that targets vulnerable pro-abortion rights Members of Congress.

From a Susan B. Anthony List release:

Please join us at a special reception for Pastors and Home School Parents. Meet former Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave (R, Colorado) the author of the Federal Marriage Amendment. She is a tireless fighter for Life and Traditional Marriage, who will talk about Faith and Values in the Public Square and the New York District 23 Special Congressional Election. Refreshments will be served.

Hoffman has reportedly started to receive late attention from social conservatives like the National Organization for Marriage.

As MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow pointed out this week, however, the “conga line” of right-wing figures like Musgrave coming to the aid of Hoffman has got to give Hoffman as well as Republican observers pause.

MADDOW: Undeterred by the fact that the conservative party candidate doesn‘t actually live in the district in which he‘s running, undeterred by the local press saying the conservative party candidate has, quote, “no grasp of the bread and butter issues pertinent to district residents,” undeterred by any of that, a whole conga line of conservatives, who are not exactly famous for winning things, have decamped to this rural Upstate New York congressional race to try to make a national, political point.

[...]

We can send Washington a message—that‘s what all of these ambitious conservatives from the states like Tennessee and Colorado and all over the country are doing in this little Upstate New York special election. They are trying to send a national message that the Republican Party should be way more right-wing– and they should know, they are all famous for losing important elections. Musgrave, Santorum, Forbes, Fred Thompson, even Sarah Palin. The marquee name conservatives racing from across the country to overrule local Republicans and instead offer their own strategic guidance on their race, they are all famous for losing.

Video and a transcript available at Crooks and Liars.

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