The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is gunning for Colorado Freshman Representative Cory Gardner with a bold gas-station advertising campaign that highlights his votes in support of oil industry tax breaks and deregulation, on one side, and his votes to prune Medicare, on the other. Ads will appear atop gas pumps in the Fourth District, capturing constituents as they watch their price-of-purchase climb. The ad text underlines the contrast between individual taxpayers sweating out the economy and the mega-profiting non-tax-paying corporations like Chevron and Exxon that are hiking gas prices in a recession without fear of political response.

“Congressman Cory Gardner voted to cut taxes for millionaires and end your Medicare,” the ad reads.

The ad is the last in the DCCC’s “Accountability August” campaign. Radio ads hitting on similar themes have aired in Gardner’s district as well as in the state’s Third District, represented by freshman Republican Scott Tipton. A billboard campaign in Tipton’s district carried the same message as does the gaspump campaign in Gardner’s district.

In a release touting the campaign Thursday, the DCCC wrote that “House Republicans, including Representative Cory Gardner, voted to end Medicare three times and to raise seniors’ health care costs in order to protect tax breaks for millionaires and Big Oil.”

Gardner defends voting to reform Medicare with a plan to turn it partly into a private voucher system, arguing that it’s the only way to “save” the program from financial insolvency without raising taxes. And he defends voting to extend tax cuts for corporations and wealthy Americans because he believes money saved in taxes “creates jobs.” He has said it’s a bad idea to take money out of the private sector during a recession.

Although that line of thinking has become dogma on the right, increasing numbers of wealthy Americans have taken issue with it as a practical matter.

Billionaire CEO Warren Buffet, for example, was one of many vastly wealthy Americans who recently begged Congress to stop “coddling” him. He said he didn’t need Congress’s special help, that he has more than enough money to pay taxes at the same percentage as do less wealthy Americans and that no amount of taxes would prevent Americans like him from continuing to make investments for profit.

In Gardner’s district last week, representatives of Americans for Prosperity, an activist group backed by the oil billionaire Koch brothers, agreed with counter-protesters at their events that government handouts to major corporations have got to end.

The National Institute for Money in State Politics recently reported that, in 2009 five of the top U.S. corporations– Bank of America, Boeing, Chevron, ExxonMobil and General Electric– won $3.7 billion in tax breaks and paid $0 in federal taxes. They enjoyed a combined profit of $77.16 billion in 2010.

“There are some bad votes out there Gardner will have to defend,” a spokesman for the DCCC told the Colorado Independent. “He voted for policies that would make it hard on the middle class while giving away millions in tax breaks to oil companies.”

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NOT EXACTLY OXFORD STYLE: CU student Zach Lahn continues to follow up on his contentious questioning of President Barack Obama in Grand Junction last weekend with a tour of cable news shows. Yesterday, the conservative Lahn had a few minutes to explain to MSNBC’s Contessa Brewer and CNN’s Wolf Blitzer why Fed Ex doesn’t have to deliver a postcard to Alaska, or something like that. Westword says MSNBC “shut down” the “Obama basher,” though it looks more like the breathless 23-year-old ran up against a commercial break. Best Lahn line? Explaining why it’s inaccurate to call him a McCain volunteer because he didn’t start volunteering until Sarah Palin was on the ticket.

MEDIA WATCHDOG TURNS TECH FLAK: Roughly six months after Media Matters shuttered its branch in Colorado, former chief watchdog Bill Menezes has landed a permanent gig as a bigwig account director at VisiTech Public Relations, a Denver-based “boutique agency specializing in the tech field,” reports Westword’s Michael Roberts. “I’ve always had a personal passion for tech,” the former Denver Post and Wireless Week journo told Roberts.

DEMS TAR GARDNER WITH ‘BIRTHER’ HEDGE: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee didn’t wait long before jumping on news Republican Cory Gardner, the front-runner to take on first-term U.S. Rep. Betsy Markey, wasn’t willing to say for sure whether President Barack Obama was “born in this country” at a town hall Wednesday night. “With his comments last night, it’s clear that Cory Gardner has latched onto a fringe movement whose central belief has been debunked and proven false time and again,” said DCCC flak Andy Stone in a release posted soon after Coloradoan editor Bob Moore posted the story on his blog. “Gardner had an opportunity to put the issue to rest, but now joins an illustrious group of Birther supporters, including Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck and the notorious ‘Birther Queen’ Orly Taitz.” That last one’s gotta hurt — for a full run-down on the “Birther Queen,” see Dave Weigel’s dogged reporting at our sister site, The Washington Independent.

YOU MEAN THE O.J. TRIAL WASN’T GONZO ENOUGH?: Yes, the 1994 trial that brought us Kato Kailen, Johnny Cochran and Judge Ito could have been even more of a circus. Dethroned San Francisco Examiner boss Phil Bronstein — whose former newspaper is now the heart of Denver-based billionaire Phil Anschutz’ free-tabloid empire — wanted Aspen-based gonzo journalist Hunter S. Thompson to cover the proceedings. “The best idea I ever had, that never got acted on, was to have Hunter Thompson cover the O.J. Simpson trial,” Bronstein told Market Watch’s Jon Friedman. “We had an eight-hour negotiating session. Hunter wanted satellite dishes, an unlimited expense account and a suite or two at the Chateau Marmont. We were a dying afternoon paper with no budget.”

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The Jared Polis Victory Fund will also parcel out donations to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and four PACs run by House leadership, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Polis poured just short of $6 million of his own money into his 2008 campaign to represent Colorado’s 2nd Congressional District, making him the top self-funder in the nation last year. When he was elected, the Internet entrepreneur was the third wealthiest member of the House, according to financial disclosure forms analyzed by the Center for Responsive Politics.

Because the 2nd District seat is among the safest in Colorado for a Democrat — President Barack Obama won 64 percent of the vote there, slightly edging Polis’ 60 percent — Polis can turn his attention to helping colleagues facing closer races raise money. In addition to Markey, who ousted three-term Republican Marilyn Musgrave to represent the 4th District, the recipients of Polis’ fundraising muscle include all three members of the New Mexico House delegation, U.S. Reps. Ben Ray Lujan. Martin Heinrich and Harry Teague.

Already amassing power in Congress far beyond the usual crumbs allotted freshman members, Polis adds his fundraising strength to seats he landed earlier this year on the House Democratic Steering and Policy Committee and the powerful House Rules Committee, exceedingly rare feats for a rookie.

After the Polis fund takes 12 percent of each donation for his own campaign chest, each of the designated candidates stands to receive 2.93 percent of the money raised. For donations topping $40,000, the Polis fund parcels out cuts to other committees dedicated to electing Democrats to Congress. Bennet, on the ballot in 2010 after winning appointment to fill the term of Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, is the only Senate candidate to get a piece of Polis’ fundraising prowess.

The Chamber saluted Markey by press release for backing the stimulus bill, citing Obama administration figures that the district would gain 8,800 jobs over the next two years.

“Since the elections, we’ve worked with the President and Congresswoman Markey to quickly pass a bill that would apply a defibrillator to the economy and shock it back to life,” said Bruce Josten, the U.S. Chamber’s executive vice president of Government Affairs.

“While not everyone in Washington or Colorado agrees on every item in this package, the whole is more important than the individual parts,” Josten said. “Our economy is in uncharted and dangerous waters and inaction from Washington is not an option.”

On the opposite end of the ideological spectrum, the DCCC listed 40 incumbents likely to be targeted in 2010 by their campaign season nemesis, the National Republican Congressional Committee. The Dem incumbents will receive early financial rainmaking via independent expenditures in the way of ads and direct mail in order to expand the candidates’ voter outreach and online networking.

In the last election cycle, the DCCC pumped a state record $1.11 million into the Markey-Musgrave slugfest renown for its vicious attack ads to counter the $1.14 million from the NRCC.

Democrat Betsy Markey (left) and Rep. Marilyn Musgrave stand at their first debate in Fort Collins. (Photo/Jason Kosena)

Democrat Betsy Markey outraised her Republican opponent, Rep. Marilyn Musgrave, by a 2-1 margin during the first two weeks of October, according to campaign finance records filed with the FEC on Thursday. Markey, a former Senate staffer, raised an average of $25,546 per day between Oct. 1 and Oct. 15, far outpacing Musgrave, who collected $10,001 per day during the same period. Both women are hoping to represent the 4th Congressional District in Colorado next year.

Markey’s filing showed the never-elected Fort Collins resident raised $383,147 during the pre-general filing period, finishing with $225,404 in the bank, while Musgrave’s own filing showed she raised $150,022, finishing with $325,030 cash on hand. During a time when both campaigns have ramped up negative attacks on the other, both women are spending large sums of money during the final month of the campaign, with Musgrave shelling out $609,114 in the first two weeks of October, compared with the $539,436 that Markey spent.

Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave waits for her first of three debates with challenger Betsy Markey to begin. (Photo/Jason Kosena)

The filings further illustrate the uphill battle Musgrave will have to fight during the final week of her campaign as she works to hold onto the congressional seat she first was elected to in 2002. Her battle was made harder earlier this week when the National Republican Congressional Committee announced it was pulling $400,000 in TV airtime out of the race and Musgrave’s name appeared on a leaked GOP “death list” of seats the party believes are lost or are close to lost.

Thursday’s FEC filing marked the third consecutive reporting period where Musgrave failed to outraise Markey. The race has become extraordinarily negative in recent weeks, kicking into high gear after Musgrave’s campaign released a new ad that implies Markey could face jail time for contracts her family business, Syscom Systems, received after Markey became employed with Sen. Ken Salazar’s office. After the ad went up, Salazar called Musgrave “an agent of hate” and Markey has called for a public apology.

Markey’s campaign has thrown its own mud at Musgrave, running negative ads throughout the campaign. It has also tried to link Musgrave to a convicted executive at Spectrum Marketing Services Inc., a firm Musgrave paid $30,200 to for production of yard signs, campaign brochures and business cards.

The latest FEC filings don’t include independent expenditures from outside groups, which historically have been a factor in 4th CD elections. In fact, outside groups have kicked in nearly $2 million this year, primarily for negative campaign ads against Musgrave. The environmental group Defenders of Wildlife has already spent more than $1 million for a negative advertising blitz against Musgrave, and smaller buys were made by VoteVets.org and the 527 group Majority Action. In addition, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has poured more than $650,000 into the race in recent weeks, including media buys throughout next week.

Most of Markey’s cash in October came through itemized donations — those totaling more than $200 each — and many of them likely came from out-of-state donors. Markey recently banked on House Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi to help her fund raise by attending an event in Denver earlier this month with Pelosi, who also sent a letter to supporters saying the cash-strapped Markey needed help. Sen. Hillary Clinton and Democratic strategist Paul Begala also sent out fundraising letters on Markey’s behalf this month, telling voters victory against Musgrave is close but not sealed.

Betsy Markey at the final debate in Windsor. (Photo/Jason Kosena)

Markey has consistently done a better job fundraising than Fort Collins Democrat Angie Paccione did in 2006 when she ran against Musgrave and lost by fewer than 3 percentage points. At the same point in that race in 2006, Paccione, a former state lawmaker, had raised $212,913 during the pre-general filing period and had raised nearly $600,000 less than Markey throughout the campaign at this point. Musgrave, who has struggled to fundraise during this election cycle at the same rate she has in previous elections, raised slightly more this year than in 2006, when her early October pull was $136,882.

Despite raising more during the quarter in 2006, Musgrave enters the final month of her campaign with less cash on hand than she had at this point in 2006. At the time, Musgrave had $930,074 in the bank coming into October, while this year she had $798,310.

Rep. Marilyn Musgrave at the final CD 4 debate in Windsor. (Photo/Jason Kosena)

UPDATE: The Musgrave campaign gave the following comment to The Colorado Independent regarding the NRCC pull-out:

“This is a clear indication the NRCC believes Marilyn is in s strong position to close this race out with a victory in November,” said Jason Thielman, Musgrave’s campaign manager. “We have the resources necessary to close strong and deliver our message unlike many other house candidates across the country.”

In a surprise move, the National Republican Congressional Committee canceled its TV advertising buy in the 4th Congressional District for the last week of the election on Wednesday in what some experts say is clear sign Republican incumbent Rep. Marilyn Musgrave’s re-election bid for a fourth term is at risk. It could also mean that Musgrave’s challenger Betsy Markey could become the first Democrat elected to the 4th CD in decades.

The NRCC has focused on the 4th in recent weeks by dumping more than $700,000 into the race including an additional $400,000 in TV airtime to be used in the final week of the campaign — money the NRCC pulled out today by sending letters to Denver TV stations canceling the ad buy. Both parties have viewed the 4th CD as a clear toss-up throughout the election cycle. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has poured more than $600,000 into the race — including an additional $300,000 Tuesday night for more airtime — and independent expenditures totaling nearly $2 million have flooded in mostly for use attacking Musgrave.

“This is pretty interesting news,” said John Straayer, a political science professor at Colorado State University. “It sounds like the Republicans have other races that need the money more than Musgrave and that they are pessimistic about her chances. If they have internal polling that suggests Markey is sitting on a comfortable lead, something beyond the margin of error, and those numbers have been standing firm in recent weeks and are not going the other way, they might think it’s time to change the pace and protect other incumbents who appear to be in a better spot.”

Polling so far hasn’t been good for Musgrave this year. A Roll Call poll by SurveyUSA in August put Markey ahead by 7 percentage points and a more recent poll by EMILY’s List, a Markey supporter, put Markey up by 9 points. The EMILY’s List poll is somewhat skewed being it included a smaller percentage of registered Republicans than the 4th’s voter demographics. In addition, Markey’s campaign also released internal polling in June that showed her up over Musgrave by 4 percentage points. Musgrave’s campaign has not released any polling in recent months and no outside groups gauging the race have shown Musgrave in the lead.

Markey’s campaign seemed optimistic about their candidate’s standing coming into the final week of the election when contacted by The Colorado Independent Wednesday afternoon.

“This is a pretty clear indication that Musgrave’s negative campaign is backfiring on her,” Markey spokesman Ben Marter said adding they are remain focused on finishing the campaign with the same strategy they have adopted thus far. “We’re going to keep doing what we have been doing. Working hard, talking to voters, getting Betsy’s message out there. There is still two weeks to go.”

The NRCC has struggled to fundraise this year at the same pace as the DCCC which at times has had a 4-1 cash advantage over its Republican counterpart. With so little money and a number of important House seats to fight for, Straayer said there have been signs the NRCC has been struggling but that it was still surprising to see the party pull out of the 4th CD.

“They are fighting tough battles everywhere,” Straayer said. “There were a number of incumbents who retired this year and they have a number of seats they are fighting to keep. The Republican brand isn’t strong right now.”

Another possibility Straayer said should be considered is the Republican Party could be strategically looking at what congressional seats they can let go of this year but have a good opportunity of reclaiming in 2010 or 2012. With more registered Republicans in the 4th CD than Democrats and unaffiliated voters, Musgrave’s seat could fall into that category, Straayer said.

“I suspect another thing they are looking at it is what seats they think are going to be recoverable in the reasonably near future,” he said. “You know, a ‘let’s look at what seats we can walk away from now and be relatively sure that if things don’t go well for the Democrats, not Markey personally but the Democrats as a party, if they have some stumbles, that we can recover the seat later.”

Continuing a trend that started earlier this summer, Musgrave failed to outraise Markey during the third quarter of this year. Between July 20 and Sept. 30 Musgrave raised a total of $599,618 — or $119,286 less than Markey, who collected $718,904 during the same period, according to FEC filings both campaigns made last week. The filings don’t include the money raised during the pre-primary period in the beginning of July. At the time, Musgrave still had more than double the cash on hand as Markey, though, with $798,310 in her campaign war chest compared to Markey’s $381,894 bankroll.

Both campaigns will file their Pre-General FEC filings Thursday but without the NRCC’s backing, Musgrave will most likely need to spend nearly every penny of her warchest fighting Markey throughout the remaining days of the campaign.Markey recently banked on House Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi to help her fund raise by attending an event in Denver earlier this month with Pelosi, who also sent a letter to supporters saying the cash-strapped Markey is struggling to keep up with the negative advertising Musgrave has employed. Other big-time Democrats have also sent fundraising letters out to supporters on Markey’s behalf in recent days including Sen. Hillary Clinton and Paul Begala. Markey’s campaign said earlier in the week that the help is being recognized with campaign donations.

Marter, Markey’s spokesman, said he believes polling that show Markey ahead is indicative of voters’ dismay over extraordinarily negative campaign tactics Musgrave has employed including a recent TV advertisement that suggested Markey could face jail time for contracts her family business, Syscom Systems, received while Markey was employed with Sen. Ken Salazar.

Musgrave’s campaign repeatedly raised questions about the contracts that Markey’s family business, Syscom Systems, received after Markey was employed by Sen. Ken Salazar. Musgrave has not provided proof for her allegations and said it’s Markey’s responsibility to prove her company did not benefit from her position in Salazar’s office.

The Government Services Agency, led by Republican appointees made by President Bush, said it could not find a conflict of interest between Syscom’s contracts and Markey’s service under Salazar.

Read more about the Musgrave-Markey race and last night’s final and quite contentious candidate debate.

(Photo/Storm Crypt, Flickr)

Democrat Betsy Markey is leading incumbent U.S. Rep. Marilyn Musgrave by 6 to 8 points, according to internal Democratic polling, but her lead could disappear if Markey is unable to keep advertising on television after next week.

Markey raised more money than Musgrave in the third quarter, but she could have to pull her ads off the air starting sometime next week because the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee wanted her to start running ads early to prevent Musgrave from defining her candidacy.

But that strategy has left her vulnerable in late October, even though internal polling shows that Markey has cracked the 50-percent barrier and leads Musgrave by 8 points, a senior Democratic strategist told a group of Democratic contributors in a conference call on Friday.

Markey’s campaign did its own poll 10 days ago, showing her leading by 6 points, campaign spokesman Ben Marter said.

Musgrave, a Republican darling among social conservatives for her opposition to abortion and gay marriage, narrowly won races in 2004 and 2006, even though she represents a Republican-leaning district. Democrats are afraid if they cannot beat her this year, they will never win the seat.

Markey’s staff remains confident that it can raise enough money to finance television ads through the campaign, Marter said.

Markey’s race is emblematic of other congressional races around the country where Democrats are charging hard against Republican incumbents or leading in Republican-leaning districts where there is no incumbent running.

But in 25 races in suburban and exurban areas around the country, only three Democrats have cracked the 50-percent threshold.

A top Democratic source told a group of donors on Friday that these candidates, including Markey, had not sold themselves to undecided voters and that their leads were shaky.

“Undecideds are hostile terrain,” the Democratic strategist said, adding that Democrats were trying to get traditionally independent-leaning Republicans to do something they are unaccustomed to doing: vote Democratic. The goal in the remaining 18 days is not to let those congressional districts snap back to their norms.

In a larger context, Democrats are challenging history: The last time a party won back-to-back “wave elections” was in 1930 and 1932 when Democrats expanded their majorities in Congress and Franklin Roosevelt was elected president.

In other so-called “wave elections” in 1946, 1958, 1966, 1974, 1982 and 1994, the winning party subsequently lost seats or watched the other party win the White House. For example, in 1982 Democrats picked up 26 seats in Congress, but two years later Ronald Reagan won reelection in a landslide.

Democrats currently hold 235 seats in the House (they held just 203 in 2005).

In the Senate, Democrats are gunning for 60 seats, which would give them the ability to overcome GOP filibusters.

Democratic Party leaders see Markey’s race as key to winning roughly 25 more seats and building a working majority in the House to pass energy, health care, tax and financial services regulatory reform bills if Barack Obama becomes president.

The DCCC will continue advertising in the district, and Politico reported on Friday that the DCCC borrowed $15 million to help carry Democratic challengers.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has had to borrow $8 million. Many GOP challengers will be left to fend for themselves while the party works to protect its incumbents.

The armada has arrived. After months of going it alone, the campaigns of Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave and Democratic challenger Betsy Markey are now getting help from their respective national parties — the latest signal of just how much interest this sizzling-hot race has generated in a traditionally GOP stronghold.

After weeks of the two campaigns funding negative attack advertising against the other, the Republican National Congressional Committee (RNCC) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) have entered the 4th Congressional District flashing competing television ads — a clear sign that both parties see the race as winnable for their candidate.

The NRCC, which reserved $1.2 million in airtime between now and Election Day, hit first on Tuesday with an attack ad highlighting questions Musgrave’s campaign has raised in recent weeks over government contracts Markey’s family business secured while she was working as a field director for U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar.

Markey has maintained her work with Salazar was unrelated to the contracts her family business, Syscom Systems, received, but has stumbled while explaining why Syscom continued advertising as a woman-owned business even after she divested her ownership to her husband in 2006.

The DCCC, which has reserved $667,000 in airtime, didn’t take long to respond, airing its own attack ad Tuesday against Musgrave that calls into question hundreds of thousands in campaign donations the three-term incumbent from Fort Morgan has taken from a number of different industries, including oil and gas, health insurance firms as well as the now-crippled financial sector.

Today’s third-quarter campaign-finance reporting by both campaigns will likely illustrate, in part, how Musgrave and Markey will finish the last three weeks of the campaign. According to a fundraising letter sent by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi this week to supporters, Markey’s campaign is running low on cash and is unsure how long it can continue television advertising in the race.

Despite holding a major cash advantage, Musgrave failed to out-raise Markey during the second quarter of this year, reporting $1,155,899 cash on hand compared to Markey’s $575,835 bankroll. Although Republicans nationwide have struggled to keep up with their 2004 and 2006 fundraising prowess, Musgrave has fallen behind her fundraising levels in previous election cycles at rates greater than other incumbent House Republicans in close reelection bids, according to an August analysis by The Fort Collins Coloradoan.

Musgrave could be outspent this year when considering independent expenditures by three outside groups including the non-profit 501c(4) groups Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund and VoteVets.org, as well as by the 527 group called Majority Action. All of the outside money used against Musgrave has come in the form of negative advertising and most experts agree more will be spent against Musgrave in coming weeks.

The geographically vast district, with voter registration numbers that favor Republicans by 13 percent, encompasses the northern Front Range and the rural eastern plains. The possibility of the 4th flipping from red to blue has put the race on the national radar. Officials with both the NRCC and the DCCC have previously said they were keeping a close eye on the race, and it has gained a national audience in recent weeks as polling showed Markey ahead of Musgrave.

A Roll Call poll by SurveyUSA in August put Markey ahead by 7 percentage points and a more recent poll by EMILY’s List, a Markey supporter, put Markey up by 9 points. The EMILY’s List poll is somewhat skewed since it included a smaller percentage of registered Republicans than the 4th’s voter demographics. Markey’s campaign also released internal polling in June that showed her up over Musgrave by 4 percentage points.

Musgrave’s campaign has not released any polling in recent months and no outside groups gauging the race have shown Musgrave in the lead.

The entrance of both national parties into the race shows just how close the two campaigns are. Two years ago, Musgrave struggled in a three-way battle with Democrat Angie Paccione and Reform Party candidate Eric Eidsness. Eidsness, a former Republican, received more than 10 percent of the vote and Musgrave inched past Paccione by a slim 3 percent margin, one of the smallest of any Republican incumbent in the House and the closest of her career. In an already bad year for Republicans nationwide, Paccione looked strong against Musgrave in 2006 until she was slammed in the media and subsequently with negative advertising for a previous bankruptcy and for unpaid student loans.

Just what impact the ads will have on the race during the final weeks is still unknown. What voters can bank on though for the next 21 days is a constant barrage of television advertising — nearly all of it negative.

Rep. Marilyn Musgrave accepts her party's nomination for a third term at the 2008 Colorado Republican Party convention. (Photo/Bob Spencer)

Criminal complaints. Accusations of lying and public smears. Nasty TV and radio attack ads.

It’s election season in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District, and this year’s race — much like those of the past — has not proven healthy for the faint of heart. But this year’s race between three-term incumbent Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave and Democrat Betsy Markey has a new dimension: Despite voter registration numbers that favor Republicans by 13 percent, recent polls indicated Markey, a never-before-elected former Senate staffer, stands a clear chance of unseating Musgrave.

And at least one prominent Colorado political observer says that the cash-strapped national National Republican Campaign Committee may be willing to abandon the socially conservative Musgrave this year, with the idea of reclaiming it as a Republican seat in 2010.

Similar to Colorado in the presidential election, the possibility of the 4th, which encompasses the north Front Range and the eastern plains, flipping from Red to Blue has put the race on the national radar.

Officials with both the the National Republican Campaign Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee say they are watching the race closely; both parties have reserved significant airtime on TV and radio stations in the district. Outside expenditures from non-profit 501c(4)s and 527s against Musgrave have already topped $1 million through September. The Washington Post has labeled the race one of the top 10 closest in the nation and the Wall Street Journal recently had a reporter poking around Colorado’s eastern plains to profile the race.

Two years ago, Musgrave struggled in a three-way battle with Democrat Angie Paccione and Reform Party candidate Eric Eidsness. Eidsness, a former Republican, received more than 10 percent of the vote and Musgrave inched past Paccione by a slim 3 percent margin, one of the smallest of any Republican incumbent in the House and the closest of her career. Already a bad year for Republicans nationwide, Paccione looked strong against Musgrave in 2006 until she was slammed in the media and subsequently with negative advertising for a previous bankruptcy and for unpaid student loans. Paccione was never able to recover.

Protesters line the street outside a 2007 GOP rally featuring President Bush at the Island Grove Event Center in Greeley. (Photo/Wendy Norris)

Criticized by some for being out of touch with voters, Musgrave has held many town hall meetings since 2006, has partnered with Colorado Democrats on legislation, and rarely speaks about socially conservative issues she supports, including gay marriage, gun rights and abortion anymore.

Although the real success of Musgrave’s effort to retool her image have yet to be seen, using fund-raising and early polling as an indicator, Musgrave could be in trouble.

Making cents of it all
Despite holding a major cash advantage, Musgrave failed to out-raise Markey during the second quarter of this year, reporting $1,155,899 cash on hand compared to Markey’s $575,835 bankroll. Although Republicans nationwide have struggled to keep up with their 2004 and 2006 fundraising prowess, Musgrave has fallen behind her fundraising levels in previous election cycles at rates greater than other incumbent House Republicans in close reelection bids, according to an August analysis by the Fort Collins Coloradoan.

Despite holding nearly a 2-1 cash advantage after the second quarter, Musgrave could be outspent this year. More than $1 million has already been used against Musgrave by three outside groups including the non-profit 501c(4) groups Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund and VoteVets.org as well as by the 527 group called Majority Action. All of the outside money used against Musgrave has come in the form of negative advertising and most experts agree more will be spent against Musgrave in coming weeks.

NRCC officials, already struggling this year with a 4-1 margin to keep up with DCCC fundraising, would not directly comment on whether they will follow through on the $1.2 million in airtime it reserved earlier this year. In August, the NRCC teamed with Musgrave’s campaign on a TV advertisement that detailed Musgrave’s upbringing with an alcoholic father. The NRCC shelled out the maximum $84,000 allowed under FEC guidelines for that ad and all indications are more is on the way.

“With Betsy Markey having liberal special interest groups doing her dirty work for her, it certainly provides an extra challenge for us,” said Brendan Buck, a NRCC spokesman. “Clearly these outside groups continue to pour extra money in because they recognize that voters are not falling for their misleading smears.”

Buck then fired a smear of his own at Markey, claiming that she is “flawed” and has “ethical baggage.”

“We will continue to highlight the differences between Marilyn Musgrave who voters know and can trust, and Betsy Markey who always puts her political career before the country. I am confident that this contrast will put us in a very good position on Election Day,” he said.

Although the DCCC has reserved $667,000 in airtime as well this year that presumably would be used to attack Musgrave, it’s unclear whether that money will ever find its way to Colorado. The DCCC has a history of reserving ad time early in the race to target Musgrave — and then not following through, as what happened with Paccione, who was also a part of the DCCC’s Red to Blue program in 2006.

Betsy Markey speaks at a town hall forum on energy. (Photo/Jason Kosena)

“Betsy Markey is on our Red to Blue program, which is our top-tiered program that provides communication, fundraising, research, and other support to her campaign for change and highlights the vital nature of the race,” said Yoni Cohen, a DCCC spokesman. “Betsy Markey’s campaign for change continues to generate tremendous excitement and momentum.”

Cohen had his own criticism of the Fort Morgan Republican. Musgrave, Cohen said, has supported legislation that gives tax breaks to her husband, who owns precious metals.

“[Musgrave] doesn’t understand the struggles Coloradans face in the current economy. She voted against a bonus for our troops and supports Social Security privatization and opposes allowing Medicare to negotiate for cheaper prescription drugs,” Cohen said.

Musgrave polling behind
Polling so far hasn’t been good for Musgrave this year. A Roll Call poll by SurveyUSA in August put Markey ahead by 7 percentage points and a more recent poll by EMILY’s List, a Markey supporter, put Markey up by 9 points. The EMILY’s List poll is somewhat skewed being it included a smaller percentage of registered Republicans than the 4th’s voter demographics. In addition, Markey’s campaign also released internal polling in June that showed her up over Musgrave by 4 percentage points.

Musgrave’s campaign has not released any polling in recent months and no outside groups gauging the race have shown Musgrave in the lead.

One Colorado political expert said polling could be the factor the national parties use when deciding if they will utilize the significant airtime reservations each has made in the 4th this year. With limited money and many races nationwide, the DCCC and the NRCC could be waiting a little longer to see just how the race shapes up, said Colorado State University political science professor John Straayer.

“I suspect decisions will rest on what they think they know based on polls,” Straayer said. “If the Republicans see a downside in the 4th, and are short on money, they may decide that they’ll let it go where it will go, put their sparse money elsewhere, and figure that given the numbers and history of the 4th, they have a good shot to get it back in 2010. By then the Democrats will have had to struggle with the mess which they will inherit, and Republicans may then assume the Democrats will be vulnerable in Congressional contests.

“That is not a bad calculus, except for the fact that incumbents are tough to unseat.”