This isn’t the first time the committees’ reports haven’t added up. Several weeks ago, Colorado Confidential reported on a $40,000 discrepancy. That time, though, the missing money was on the other end. Beauprez’s campaign said it received $100,000 while the CRC said it only gave $60,000 (See Box 2). Neither committee has amended the transaction with the Secretary of State, which means the Beauprez campaign must have actually received the 40 grand. But if the CRC didn’t give them the money, who did?

This time, records show the Beauprez campaign hasn’t received the $20,000 the CRC said it contributed. Considering Beauprez has been dipping deep into his own pockets to finance his sagging campaign, an extra 20 grand surely would be appreciated. But if the CRC didn’t give the money to Beauprez, where did it go?

It’s outrageous the committees can’t keep their largest transactions straight – especially since it appears the same person prepares them (See Box 3). BOX 1

CRC expenditures – Nov. 1 report

Beauprez for Governor contributions – Nov. 1 report

Notice the Beauprez reports call it the Colorado Republican Committee PAC? That’s just a sloppy mistake. It’s the same committee ID as the CRC. There’s also a committee called the Colorado Republican PAC, but it’s never had much money. Interestingly, its reports are also prepared by the same accounting firm that does Beauprez’s and the CRC’s (see Box 3). 

BOX 2

CRC expenditures – Oct. 18 report

Beauprez for Governor contributions – Oct. 18 report

BOX 3

Beauprez for Governor:

Colorado Republican Committee:

Behrens is also starring in an “All Children Matter” Virginia-based 527 political organization TV commercial that attacks Democratic House District 55 incumbent Bernie Buescher’s record. Buescher’s opponent, Bob Caskey, is a former Colorado Division of Wildlife officer who once policed outfitter conduct.

Let’s take a look at the Colorado Republican Committee reporting problems Colorado Confidential has chronicled:

1. The committee mysteriously loses and gains thousands of dollars between reporting periods. The Secretary of State’s office said there is no legitimate explanation for this.

2. The committee reported giving $60,000 to Bob Beauprez’s campaign. His campaign reported receiving $100,000. Who’s confused?

3. Two recent weeks’ worth of financial data are not available on the Secretary of State’s Web site. Does the report contain more errors?

It’s hard to understand how either could misplace $40,000. The CRC lists only 13 expenditures in its last report, and other than the $60,000 donation to Beauprez, they were all for $1,200 or less. One would think the folks at the CRC would know if they’d dropped another 40 grand – especially since they had less than $30,000 left at the end of the reporting period. So, another $40,000 contribution to Beauprez would have put them in the red.

The Beauprez campaign reported receiving 1,293 contributions. Perhaps those are more difficult to keep track of? Possibly. But, more than 99 percent of those were under $500. Only eight contributions were over $500 and only two – those from the CRC – were more than $1,000. Could the Beauprez campaign mistakenly document it received $100,000 instead of $60,000 and not notice?

This isn’t the first time Colorado Confidential has found problems with the CRC’s financial reporting. Two weeks ago we reported about several instances during the past year when the committee appeared to lose or gain thousands of dollars from one reporting period to the next. And, a related committee, the Colorado Republican PAC, reported financial data to the Secretary of State that actually belonged to the Colorado Republican Committee. And, until yesterday, a total of five weeks of reporting from the CRC wasn’t available on the Secretary of State’s Web site. Whew! It’s hard to keep up with all the financial hanky-panky of the GOP committee.

So, why do we require political committees to report financial data if there’s nobody policing their accuracy? A few dollars off here and there is one thing, but when the largest contributions to a gubernatorial campaign can’t be accounted for, that’s something else. And, should such a mistake, if that’s what it is, be easily fixed by the filing of an adjustment report? No harm, no foul, and no questions asked? We might have campaign finance laws, but where is the oversight?

The scandal that the Bob Beauprez for governor campaign now finds itself stuck with has been dubbed by bloggers and other groups “BeauprezGate,” and for good reason. Because just like Watergate became more about the cover-up than the actual crime itself, Beauprez’s crisis gets worse the more he

6:00 p.m.

Intro begins with snazzy Vote America 2006 graphics. Some woman from the League of Women Voters and some dude from the Colorado Bar Association make the introductions.

Channel 7 News Anchor Mike Landiss pops up and says, “Most of what you hear tonight could determine who wins the governors race.”

Um…no. Good work trying to build the drama, Mike, but this is nowhere near as important as you’d like to think it is. The only people who are even going to watch the entire debate are political nerds like me.

On another note, what happened to Mike Landiss? He just disappeared for several years, then he popped back up in Denver as though he never aged a day. Weird.
6:01

George Stephanapolufagus is the moderator of the debate. Pretty cool that ABC flew him in to handle this debate, but then he says that most of the questions come from Channel 7 viewers. So, why is he even here?

It’s a nice gig if you can get it, though. Fly around the country moderating debates in which the questions are already provided for you.

6:02

George’s first question is about school shootings. Democratic candidate Bill Ritter rambles on about a target heart magnomometer or something. Two minutes into the debate and the viewing audience is already more confused than if they were watching Turkish Wheel of Fortune.

Ritter keeps talking and says that he thinks school access should be restricted and it should be harder to get into school.

6:03

No armed guards, no megatrons, says George. Turning to Republican candidate Bob Beauprez, he asks, “Do you agree?”

Beauprez looks gaunt. He seems visibly ill, like he might throw up. He leans forward and ducks the question with a vague answer about how the governor must keep people safe. Then he says he works in a place with armed guards, “As do you, George.” Huh? There are armed guards at ABC? Really?

6:04

Ritter picks the question back up, and gets back to the magnetrons. He says he studied this whole option of magnet targeting and heart monitors, then talks about school districts needing to have local control on school safety decisions. Good move to bring up local control, because I still don’t know what the hell he’s talking about. Seriously

The tipping point for the News editors was apparently Beauprez’s ineptness at campaigning for governor…

Bill Ritter for governor.

Yes, you heard right. We believe that the former Denver district attorney, despite his inexperience outside the law enforcement realm, is the better of two good candidates running for Colorado’s top job.

True, our endorsement today is a bit of a gamble given Ritter’s limited experience. It could even turn out to be a major mistake. But based on the Bill Ritter we’ve known over the years and watched on the campaign trail, we don’t think that’s likely. It will be an error only if Ritter himself proves to be a reckless liar, and we’ve seen no evidence for that being the case…

…Our choice was not an easy one, since we also admire Ritter’s Republican opponent, Bob Beauprez. Indeed, we have to believe the 7th District congressman – whom we’ve endorsed both times he’s run – would certainly make a better governor than he has let on during this campaign…

…For us, the tipping point between the two men has to do with their campaigns. To be blunt, Beauprez’s performance during the past 15 months has not been reassuring. It began with his taking an unconvincing stand against Referendum C, one seemed designed to secure his right flank rather than satisfy personal conviction. It continued with his mysterious embrace and then repudiation of Amendment 38, and a couple of verbal gaffes. And for a long time it wasn’t clear why Beauprez even wanted to be governor. Only recently – too late in our view – have his positions begun to gel into a focused, coherent message.

This newspaper has watched Ritter under fire and seen him take on new challenges. In everything he does there’s a certain steadiness that we believe Coloradans will find reassuring.

Eighteen months ago Ritter was an improbable candidate whom few gave a chance of grabbing the Democratic Party’s nomination, given his anti-abortion views. Now he’s poised to defy the odds and become the next governor. Fortunately for Coloradans, he’s shown he deserves it.

Check out the headline on this AP story about the Colorado governor’s race – a story that appears on the Web sites of several major newspapers around the country:

Colo gov’s race looks like tossup after missteps by GOP candidate

Uh…what?
I could say that this story is inaccurate, but lets just put it this way: The only people who might still call the governor’s race a “tossup” are Bob Beauprez and his wife. And maybe one of his cows.

And the cow probably wouldn’t believe it, either.

With polls consistently showing Democrat Bill Ritter with double-digit leads and growing (the last two public polls showed Ritter with a 17- and 16-point lead, respectively), this race is far from being a “tossup.” In fact, at this point in the campaign it isn’t even close. The governor’s race may well be decided by less than five points when all is said and done come November, but today it looks like a runaway for Ritter.

To say that Beauprez errors have made this race close would indicate that Beauprez was recently the favorite, which isn’t true. The last time Beauprez led Ritter in a publicly-available poll was in May, when Rasmussen Reports showed him ahead by just two points. You can’t even really call that a lead, however, because those numbers fall easily within the poll’s margin of error and every other Rasmussen Reports poll – before and since – showed Ritter ahead of Beauprez.

In fact, the last time Beauprez had a lead over Ritter of any significance was more than a year ago, when a Wall Street Journal/Zogby poll gave Beauprez a 44-39 lead. But even that poll is worthless, because at the time several big-name Democrats were also considering running against Ritter in a primary.

Since Ritter has been the unquestioned candidate of the Democratic Party, which basically occurred in February, he has led Beauprez in every single publicly-available poll but one. Not only that, but Ritter has steadily increased his lead in every poll that has come out since the spring (Colorado Pols has tracked all publicly-available polls in the 2006 governor’s race to date). For example:

April 6, 2006 – Rasmussen Reports
Ritter: 41%
Beauprez: 40%

June 8, 2006 – Rasmussen Reports
Ritter: 43%
Beauprez: 38%

June 22, 2006 – Wall Street Journal/Zogby
Ritter: 44.2%
Beauprez: 36.1%

July 17, 2006 – The Denver Post
Ritter: 42%
Beauprez: 35%

August 17, 2006 – SurveyUSA/9News
Ritter: 50%
Beauprez: 40%

September 14, 2006 – Rocky Mountain News/CBS4
Ritter: 50%
Beauprez: 33%

Ritter has steadily been pulling further and further away from Beauprez for months, so Beauprez’s errors couldn’t have made the race a “tossup” – it just put the governor’s mansion further out of reach for Republicans.

It’s not bias to say that the governor’s race “looks like tossup after missteps by GOP candidate” – it’s wrong. Completely, absolutely, totally false. There is no evidence that you can point to today that would show this race to be a “tossup.”

But if you are a Ritter fan, don’t be too upset. At least he gets to play quarterback for the Broncos in two weeks.

Co-sponsors of the bill include Colorado Reps. Bob Beauprez, Marilyn Musgrave, Tom Tancredo, all Republicans, and Democrat John Salazar. As previously reported, all have gotten support from the NRA and other gun rights groups in their elections for Congress. Musgrave has gotten $32,659 in support; Beauprez, $29,747, Tancredo, $20,572, and Salazar, $9,900.

So far this election cycle, the NRA Political Action Committee, one of the nation’s largest, has collected $8.7 million and spent $5.7 million.

The NRA argues that the legislation is needed because the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) pursues gun dealers for trivial violations. But a recent report from the Brady Campaign that examines 21 federal court decisions over the past five years demonstrates that instead the agency has focused on cases involving dealers who sell guns to straw buyers, to juveniles, and who lack records for sale of hundreds of thousands of firearms, among other issues.

Campaign contribution analysis is of Federal Election Commission data supplied by the Center for Responsive Politics. Data include Political Action Committee contributions and independent expenditures and communciations costs in favor of candidates during their tenure in Congress.

(crossposted at Colorado Confidential)

The 7th CD, where Democrat Ed Perlmutter faces Republican Rick O’Donnell, is rated second most likely in the country to change hands, in this case, from Republican (this is Bob Beauprez’s seat) to Democratic.  The latest debate in this race is summarized here,

The 4th CD where Democrat Angie Paccione faces Marilyn Musgrave is ranked 39th, and the 5th CD where Democrat Jay Fawcett faces Republican Doug Lamborn is ranked 50th.  Meanwhile, the 3rd CD, in which incumbent Democrat John Salazar faces Republican Scott Tipton, is no longer on the top 50 races where a turnover is likely, after lingering at the bottom of the list for weeks. The latest poll of in the 4th CD shows Musgrave leading Paccione 46-42, within the margin of error of the poll.  Musgrave won in 2004 with just 51% of the vote.

A poll commissioned by Fawcett’s campaign showed Fawcett leading the 5th CD race 41-28, although this has yet to be confirmed by an independent poll.  This is an open seat created by the retirement of Republican Joel Hefley who has denounced Republican nominee Doug Lamborn for sleezy campaign tactics.

While Paccione and Fawcett are both underdogs in these districts where voter registration leans heavily Republican, and most pundits think it will be tough for Democrats to win 15-30 seats, these seats are still definitely “in play,” which is remarkable considering that these seats were considered safe Republican seats when they were drawn.

Meanwhile, none of the Congressional races Democrats are defending, the 1st, 2nd and 3rd CDs of Diana DeGette, Mark Udall, or John Salazar are close. 

The 3rd CD race is particularly notable as there is actually a small Republican voter registration edge in the district.  John Salazar, a moderate Democrat, has managed to appeal to rural voters in the District.

The 6th CD, where Bill Winter faces Tom Tancredo in a heavily Republican South Suburban Denver district, is currently ranked as the longest shot for Democrats this year.

Democrat Bill Ritter, meanwhile, is ranked third in the nation for the likelihood that he will prevail over Bob Beauprez in the race to be Governor of Colorado.  The most recent poll by Rasmussen shows him ahead by 16 percentage points.

Hat Tip to Dan Slater at Dem Notes.